CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-12-13T00:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-12-13T00:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28127/-1
CME Note: Partial halo seen directed towards the NW in all coronagraphs. Source is a C2.8 flare from AR 3514 which peaked at 2023-12-12T22:55Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131, and an associated dimming region starting at 2023-12-12T22:30Z best observed in SDO AIA 193/211. The dimming regions spans approximately W12->W26 and N11->S10, with the most dimming occurring centered around N06W19. A double ribbon flare/surface brightening is observed in this same region in SDO AIA 304, along with a small post-eruptive arcade that begins at the same time as the eruption. Clear arrival signature: A clear shock signature with a sharp increase in B total to initially 15nT and eventually to over 23nT, with rapid fluctuations of all magnetic field components. This is accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed at first from under 300 to 400 km/s, further increasing to just under 550 km/s and a sharp increase in ion density and temperature. There is also a matching arrival at STEREO A.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-15T10:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-16T10:11Z (-4.8h, +4.8h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 83.0%
Prediction Method: HUXt
Prediction Method Note:
Cone CME parameters: Cone CME file = cone_cme_2023121402.in Inititaion time = 2023-12-13T05:54 Speed = 530 km/s Longitude = 23 deg Latitude = 4 deg Width = 68 deg Background solar wind file: WSA file = wsa_gong_2023121402.fitsLead Time: 25.93 hour(s)
Difference: -23.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Luke Barnard (UoR) on 2023-12-14T09:01Z
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